Joel Embiid denied Nikola Jokić a third consecutive MVP last season, but the Denver Nuggets star is the odds-on favorite to win the award this year, which would put him in an exclusive club of players to win three MVPs.
Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Adbul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan and LeBron James are the only players in league history who have hoisted the newly named Michael Jordan Trophy three or more times. As a -150 favorite, Jokić is on his way to becoming the ninth player to win three.
The reigning Finals MVP does have to contend with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+250), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+650) and Luka Dončić (+750). Antetokounmpo could also join that aforementioned club as he won back-to-back MVPs just before Jokić did. Gilgeous-Alexander and Dončić both have top-five MVP finishes on their resumes, though neither player has come especially close to winning the award. That could change this season with SGA’s Oklahoma City Thunder vying for the No. 1 seed in the West and Dončić closing in on his first scoring title.
Jokić’s gaudy averages and impressive advanced stats do well to support his case as the best player in the league. His scoring average is back up to 26.1 points per game after it dipped below 25 last season. Jokić’s rebound (12) and assist (8.9) averages are also the second-highest of his decorated career. He’s leading the NBA in VORP and box plus/minus for the fourth year in a row and has played in all but two games.
The Nuggets (36–19) are in the thick of a four-team race atop the Western Conference with the Minnesota Timberwolves (38–16), Thunder (37–17) and Los Angeles Clippers (36–17). When Denver finished first in the conference a season ago, Jokić did not win MVP after winning the award the previous two years despite his team’s sixth- and third-place finishes.
Oklahoma City is on pace for its best season in a decade thanks to the play of Gilgeous-Alexander, who could become the team’s first MVP winner since Kevin Durant in 2014. Gilgeous-Alexander is third in the league in scoring (31.1 points per game) and first in steals (2.2). He also leads all players in win shares and offensive win shares, two categories Jokić led for the last three years.
Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA with 55/37/88 splits and he leads the league in total free throws made. He’s missed just one game all season on his way to his second straight All-Star nod and first time as a starter.
Antetokounmpo has put the Milwaukee Bucks on his back through two coaching changes and a major offseason shakeup with the acquisition of Damian Lillard. His scoring (30.7) and rebounding (11.4) averages are down a tick from 2022-23, but his 6.3 assists per game and 61% field-goal percentage are both career-highs. Antetokounmpo also leads all players in fast break points (5.5) and points in the paint (20.4) per game.
As usual, the Bucks (35–20) are among the top three teams in the East, but the Boston Celtics (43–12) are running away with the best record in the NBA and the Cleveland Cavaliers (36–17) recently pulled ahead of Milwaukee for second place. Antetokounmpo, who has only missed two games, is quietly putting together one of the best years of his career and his Bucks could very well finish with the second-best record in the East and one of the best in the league if they can regroup after the All-Star break with coach Doc Rivers at the helm.
2023-24 NBA Most Improved Player Midseason Odds2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Midseason Odds
Dončić, too, is putting up video-game numbers. He leads the league in scoring (34.2 points per game) and he’s third in assists (9.5) — both averages are career-highs. Dončić’s three-point percentage is up to 37.5, the best he’s ever shot from deep, and he used that improved outside shooting to propel him to a career-best 73 points in late January, the fourth-highest single-game total in NBA history. However, his eight missed games are also the most of any of the top contenders.
The Dallas Mavericks (32–23) are well behind Dončić’s contemporaries in the standings but this season has been much better than the last, when the Mavs missed the playoffs altogether for the first time since Dončić was a rookie.
After Dončić, there’s a sizable drop-off to Clippers star Kawhi Leonard (+2500) and then another gap before New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (+6600) and Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (+8000), who make up their own tier. By the looks of the race in mid-February, there will either be a first-time MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander or Dončić or one of Jokić or Antetokounmpo will win the award for a third time and further cement their respective legacies.
2023-24 NBA MVP Odds
Nikola Jokić -150
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +250
Giannis Antetokounmpo +650
Luka Dončić +750
Kawhi Leonard +2500
Jalen Brunson +6600
Jayson Tatum +8000