This time last season, Chelsea had 34 points as they topped the Premier League and marched on to another title.

The last time Jose Mourinho himself was top at this stage was in 2014/15, when his Chelsea went on to win the league. That season, after 14 games, his side had 36 points and were top of the league. This season, his new club Manchester United have 32 points, not too far off where most teams who sit top would usually be at this stage: but Manchester City are breaking records.

But both Mourinho and City should know better than most just how quickly those points can evaporate: at the start of December 2014, City were six points behind Mourinho’s Chelsea side. But what happened next was really quite remarkable.

A stunning December saw Manuel Pellegrini’s team – complete with James Milner in a false nine position – close the gap on the leaders the whole way. The two clubs found themselves exactly level on New Year’s Day: both shades of Blues locked on the same number of points, the same number of wins, the same distribution of goals and the same goal difference. They were precisely equal on the first day of 2015.

That was the last time a team had 36 points or more after 14 games. This season, City have 40 – four more still.

And yet, City are currently only two points better off than Chelsea were in 2014/15 when it comes to their lead on the chasing pack: in other words, if the Mourinho’s new side can manage exactly the same December as Pellegrini’s City did in 2014, United would climb to just two points behind their crosstown rivals on New Year’s Day.

Despite clawing their way back, however, what happened to City next was disastrous: a second half of the season to forget was marred by injuries to Vincent Kompany. Centre-back issues reigned supreme as Martin Demichelis and Eliaquim Mangala failed to cope. They would come second in the table at the end of the season, but eight points back. And only after Chelsea – already crowned champions and able to relax – dropped four points in their final three games.

This season, things feel a little bit different. Guardiola’s City aren’t the same side as Pellegrini’s, and they appear to be one of the most formidable teams in Premier League history – certainly in a way that the 14/15 vintage wasn’t.

And yet there are still similarities beyond mere points tallies.

City’s problem that season was the aforementioned defensive crisis. This season, they are once again relying on a potentially unreliable Kompany. And in the absence of John Stones and Benjamin Mendy, they are again placing a lot of trust in Eliaquim Mangala and a midfielder turned defender, this time Fabian Delph.

Back in 2014, too, Chelsea fell to their first defeat of the season in early December, before drawing once and then losing a further time before the end of the festive period. This season, City are yet to lose, but have both Manchester United and Tottenham to play before the end of December, as well as Newcastle away – the very same fixture where Mourinho’s Chelsea first came undone.

That means it’s not a foregone conclusion that City win the league from here, and however different things seem this season, there’s precedent from one of the same teams and one of the same managers that things could change very quickly over the next month.

There’s still a lot of work to be done yet, though. City will have to prove in the coming weeks that they truly are a different team to the one that collapsed in early 2015 after clawing their way back to Chelsea so admirably. And Mourinho will have to prove that he can mastermind the wins to come from behind, too, given that his sides are usually happier with a lead to defend.

But whatever happens, there is enough evidence from not that long ago to suggest that this isn’t over just yet.